The Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) suggest the level of activity declined slightly and momentum was little changed in October. The level of activity decreased by 0.06 in October, from 0.47 to 0.41, though it remains above its historical average. Meanwhile, the momentum indicator was little changed at −0.11, remaining near its historical average.
The first column of the table below shows the labor market variables that made the largest contributions to the 0.06 decrease in the activity indicator this month. Overall, 10 variables made a positive contribution to the change in the activity indicator, five variables made no contribution, and nine variables made a negative contribution. The largest positive contributor to the change in the level of activity was Conference Board’s job availability index. In October, 18.3 percent more respondents thought jobs were plentiful than thought jobs were hard to get, up from 12.7 percent in September. The largest negative contributor to the change in the level of activity was flows from unemployment to employment (the job-finding rate). In October, 24.1 percent of workers who were previously unemployed found a job, down from 28.3 percent a month ago. While this rate has been gradually declining since the second half of 2022, October’s decline was abnormally large, potentially reflecting the influence of Hurricane Milton.