Business Activity Eased Slightly
Tenth District services activity eased slightly in September and expectations for future activity softened somewhat (Chart 1 & Table 1). Input price growth accelerated this month, while selling price growth cooled somewhat. Input prices continue to grow at a faster pace than selling prices on a month-over-month and year over-year basis.
The month-over-month services composite index was -2 in September, down from 5 in August and up from -4 in July (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is a weighted average of the revenue/sales, employment, and inventory indexes. Transportation, leisure and hospitality, and retail saw the largest declines, while real estate activity increased. Revenues were flat from last month, as the month-over-month index decreased from 17 to -1. Employment declined slightly with a reading of -5, up from -9 last month. The year-over-year composite index fell from 10 to 4, as revenue and employment growth eased while inventories increased. Capital expenditures growth accelerated, increasing from 6 to 18. The composite expectations index for services activity cooled from last month’s high but remained expansionary with a reading of 7.
Services Composite Indexes
Skip to data visualization table| Date | Vs. a Month Ago | Vs. a Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| Sep-23 | 1 | 4 |
| Oct-23 | -1 | 9 |
| Nov-23 | 0 | 2 |
| Dec-23 | -7 | 8 |
| Jan-24 | -2 | -7 |
| Feb-24 | 12 | -11 |
| Mar-24 | 7 | -2 |
| Apr-24 | 9 | 7 |
| May-24 | 11 | 4 |
| Jun-24 | 2 | 8 |
| Jul-24 | -4 | 3 |
| Aug-24 | 5 | 10 |
| Sep-24 | -2 | 4 |
Special Questions
This month contacts were asked how their current investment in technology will likely impact employment levels over the next year. Two-thirds of firms (66%) said their technology investment will have no impact on employment, but over a quarter (29%) reported they expect a slight decrease while 5% expect a slight increase (Chart 2). Firms were also asked if they’ve seen any change in the flow of job applicants per job opening since last year. Responses were mixed, with 36% of firms reporting an increase in the number of job openings, while 38% reported no change, 20% reported a decrease, and 6% have not had any openings (Chart 3).
Selected Services Comments
“Sales have seen an increase in the last 60 days. Loan defaults are slowing, but the individual loan losses have increased at least 30% this year.”
“Sales of homes has increased substantially in September, which is not typical.”
“It's still rough and changes by the day, but we do see customers and are making sales. Customers are certainly more responsive to promotions.”
“Inflation may have abated, but the effects are not that apparent in our industry.”