Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country DataDecember 26, 2018
We construct a monthly measure of foreign economic growth based on a wide range of cross-county indicators. Unlike GDP data, which are normally released with a delay of one to two quarters in most countries, our monthly measure incorporates monthly information up to the current month. As new information arrives, this measure of foreign growth can be updated as frequently as daily. This monthly measure of foreign growth not only helps gauge the economic conditions in other countries but also provides a timely measure of foreign demand to help forecast U.S. export growth.
- Hakkio, Craig S., and Jun Nie. “Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper no. 18-14, December. Available at https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2018-14