Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data

December 26, 2018
By Craig S. Hakkio, Senior Vice President and Special Advisor on Economic Policy , Jun Nie, Senior Economist


Research Working PaperForecasting foreign GDP growth using cross-country monthly data provides a timely measure of foreign demand.

We construct a monthly measure of foreign economic growth based on a wide range of cross-county indicators. Unlike GDP data, which are normally released with a delay of one to two quarters in most countries, our monthly measure incorporates monthly information up to the current month. As new information arrives, this measure of foreign growth can be updated as frequently as daily. This monthly measure of foreign growth not only helps gauge the economic conditions in other countries but also provides a timely measure of foreign demand to help forecast U.S. export growth.

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RWP 18-14, December 2018

JEL Classification: E17, F17

Article Citation

  • Hakkio, Craig S., and Jun Nie. “Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper no. 18-14, December. Available at https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2018-14

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