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Special Issue 2019

Foreword

In July 2019, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted a symposium titled “Exploring Agriculture’s Path to the Long Term.” Esther L. George, the Bank’s President and Chief Executive Officer, notes both positive trends and challenges facing the agricultural sector today and in the future.

Transitioning to the Long Term

By Michael Gunderson To be successful in the future, agricultural producers will need to take leadership as production conditions, the climate, and technologies evolve.

Agricultural Cycles and Implications for the Near Term

By Ani L. Katchova and Ana Claudia Sant’Anna While several indicators suggest that a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis is unlikely, the length of the current agricultural downturn may take a toll.

The “Normal” Normal: Supply and Demand Drivers over the Next 10 Years

By Seth Meyer and Joe Glauber A growing population, evolving food and fuel consumption, and trade with China and other parts of the world will all influence U.S. agriculture over the next decade.

Long-Run Uncertainties for U.S. Agriculture

By Rosamond L. Naylor Changes in global food and fuel demand, the effects of climate change, and regional depletion of groundwater resources for irrigation create uncertainty for U.S. farmers.

Third Quarter 2019

The Uneven Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation

By Didem Tuzemen and Thao Tran Prime-age individuals without a college degree had larger declines in their labor force participation during and after the recession, due in part to the disappearance of routine jobs.

Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time

By Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae A new model for tracking GDP in real time allows policymakers to assess the current state of the economy.

Did Local Factors Contribute to the Decline in Bank Branches?

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Jacob Dice The number of bank branches has declined since the financial crisis, driven partly by changes in local market and competitive factors.

Economic Review Archive

Second Quarter 2019

The Phillips Curve and the Missing Disinflation from the Great Recession

By Willem Van Zandweghe Expectations shaped by monetary policy kept inflation stable during the Great Recession despite disinflationary pressure from high unemployment.

Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment

By David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly Rising merger and acquisition activity complements investment growth by allowing firms to build their productive capacity.

Implementation Delays in Pension Retrenchment Reforms

By Huixin Bi, Kevin Hunt and Sarah Zubairy On average, pension retrenchment reforms are phased in over a decade, but age-related forms can take much longer to implement.

First Quarter 2019

Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?

By A. Lee Smith Declining reserves have placed upward pressure on the federal funds rate in recent years despite the payment of interest on reserve balances.

What Explains Lifetime Earnings Differences across Individuals?

By José Mustre-del-Río and Emily Pollard Cumulative labor market experience explains a substantial portion of differences in lifetime earnings across individuals.

The Rise and Fall of College Tuition Inflation

By Brent Bundick and Emily Pollard Wages in the education sector and state appropriations to higher ed help explain changes in college tuition over time.

The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations

By Jordan Rappaport Jobs and residents have increasingly migrated to larger, less crowded metros, where business productivity and urban amenities have increased.

Additional files: Data and Code Files

The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?

By Nida Cakir Melek The shale boom led to greater spillovers from oil investment to aggregate investment.

Machine Learning Approaches to Macroeconomic Forecasting

By Aaron Smalter Hall A machine learning model can incorporate large amounts of data to forecast the unemployment rate.
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