How Centralized Is U.S. Metropolitan Employment?
By Jason P. Brown, Jordan Rappaport, Aaron Smalter Hall and Maeve Maloney
RWP 17-16, November 2017

The share of employment that takes place near the central business district is relatively low in most metropolitan areas. But it is considerably higher in some metropolitan areas, especially for employment in professional and scientific occupations.

The Persistence of Financial Distress
By Kartik Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Juan M. Sanchez
RWP 17-15, November 2017; updated September 2018

While many US consumers experience financial distress at some point in the life cycle, most of the events of financial distress are primarily concentrated in a much smaller proportion of consumers in persistent trouble. These facts can be largely accounted for in a straightforward extension of a workhorse model of defaultable debt that accommodates a simple form of heterogeneity in time preference but not otherwise.

Faster Payments: Market Structure and Policy Considerations
By Fumiko Hayashi, Aaron Rosenbaum, Garth Baughman, Mark Manuszak, Kylie Stewart and Joanna Stavins
RWP 17-14,
 November 2017

Each of the three hypothetical market structures that may emerge for faster payments in the United States has advantages and disadvantages in meeting public policy objectives of efficiency, safety, and ubiquity. Tools are available to promote positive outcomes in each structure.

Ignorance, Pervasive Uncertainty, and Household Finance
By Jun Nie, Yulei Luo and Haijun Wang
RWP 17-13, November 2017; updated April 2020

The interaction between two kinds of uncertainty explains household decisions on consumption, portfolio choices, and precautionary savings.

The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from Changes in Global Tax Policies
By Nicholas Sly , Brian K. Kovak and Lindsay Oldenski
RWP 17-12, November 2017

Changes in global tax policy that lower the effective tax rate on foreign income raise employment at U.S. multinational firms.

Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks
By Thomas R. Cook and Aaron Smalter Hall
RWP 17-11, September 2017

New forecasting models based on deep neural networks may improve the accuracy of economic forecasts.

Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil
By Nida Çakır Melek, Michael Plante and Mine K. Yucel
RWP 17-10, September 2017; updated December 2018

The U.S. shale oil boom had sizable effects not only on upstream and downstream energy sectors but also on GDP and trade flows. However, the crude oil export ban created large distortions in the energy sector.

Financial Vulnerability and Personal Finance Outcomes of Natural Disasters
By Kelly D. Edmiston
RWP 17-09, September 2017

Financial vulnerability, as measured by past due bills or bank card utilization rates, has a significant effect on personal financial outcomes after a natural disaster.

The Trend Real Interest Rate and Stagnation Risk: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data
By Taeyoung Doh
RWP 17-08, July 2017; updated May 2019

New estimates of trend inflation and interest rates suggest the economy has not permanently shifted to a low-growth and low-inflation regime.

Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium
By Brent Bundick, A. Lee Smith and Trenton Herriford
RWP 17-07, July 2017; updated December 2019 

Forward guidance about future monetary policy can materially affect term premia in bond markets, even without large-scale asset purchases.

Competition and Bank Fragility
By W. Blake Marsh and Rajdeep Sengupta
RWP 17-06, June 2017

The buildup in commercial real estate loan concentration and the consequent fragility in small U.S. banks can be traced to an increase in large bank competition following interstate deregulation.

Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts
By Jason P. Brown
RWP 17-05, May 2017; updated March 2018

Each oil and gas well drilled from 2007 to 2015 generated nearly $7,000 in additional consumer debt in areas with drilling for an implied total of $2.7 billion or 0.5 percent of U.S. consumer debt.

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
By Andrew Foerster and Troy Davig
RWP 17-04, April 2017

A central bank can achieve the gains of a rule-based policy without publicly stating a specific rule by establishing an inflation target, tolerance bands around the target, and providing economic projections.

Assessing Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Across Race, Age, and Educational Attainment
By Economic Research Department
RWP 17-03, April 2017 

Broad indicators are often used to evaluate the health of the labor market, though do not necessarily reflect large disparities that exist in outcomes across age, education, gender, and race.

Student Loan Relief Programs: Implications for Borrowers and the Federal Government
By Kelly D. Edmiston and Wenhua Di
RWP 17-02, January 2017 

Student loan relief plans can help struggling borrowers stay current on their debt and benefit from substantial debt write-offs in as little as 10 years, but these plans can impose a significant fiscal burden on taxpayers.

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited
By Willem Van Zandweghe, Yasuo Hirose and Takushi Kurozumi
RWP 17-01, January 2017 

This paper revisits the question of how the Federal Reserve achieved macroeconomic stability after the Great Inflation of the 1970s.