Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risks in a Data-Rich Environment
By Thomas R. Cook and Taeyoung Doh
RWP 19-12, November 2019

A large set of economic and financial indicators suggests a negligible risk of unexpectedly low real GDP growth but a modest risk of unexpectedly low inflation.

Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness
By Qingyuan Du, Jun Nie and Shang-Jin Wei
RWP 19-11, November 2019; updated February 2020

Developing countries may fail to benefit from capital account liberalization if their labor markets are rigid.

Risk-Shifting, Regulation, and Government Assistance
By Padma Sharma
RWP 19-10, November 2019

The elimination of bailouts during the savings and loan crisis in 1989 led thrift institutions to increase their composition of safe assets.

Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve
By Karlye Dilts Stedman
RWP 19-09, November 2019

Spillovers from unconventional monetary policy abroad increase when the return to normalized policy is asynchronous.

Urban Growth Shadows
By David Cuberes, Klaus Desmet and Jordan Rappaport
RWP 19-08, November 2019; updated July 2020

Although locations near metropolitan areas have experienced faster population growth since 1920, this growth has diminished since 2000, suggesting the largest metropolitan areas will grow more slowly over coming decades.

Negative Nominal Interest Rates Can Worsen Liquidity Traps
By Andrew Glover
RWP 19-07, October 2019

A workhorse macroeconomic model predicts that negative interest rates would likely deepen a recession caused by self-fulfilling pessimism about aggregate demand.

Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel
By Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, José Mustre-del-Río and Juan Sánchez
RWP 19-06, October 2019

The U.S. entered the Great Recession with a high and geographically diverse incidence of household financial distress. This dispersion, combined with the fact that highly financially distressed regions experienced the largest housing busts, exacerbated the drop in aggregate consumption during the recession.

Privacy Regulation and Quality Investment
By Yassine Lefouili and Ying Lei Toh
RWP 19-05, July 2019

Stricter privacy regulations do not always come at the expense of innovation and service quality.

Sovereign Risk and Fiscal Information: A Look at the U.S. State Default of the 1840s
By Huixin Bi and Nora Traum
RWP 19-04, June 2019

A new measure of fiscal information shows that fiscal news affects the evolution and contagion of sovereign default.

Disappearing Routine Occupations and Declining Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
By Didem Tuzemen
RWP 19-03, September 2019

The disappearance of routine jobs has been a substantial contributor to the decline in labor force participation among prime-age individuals, especially those with lower educational attainment.

Rising Market Concentration and the Decline of Food Price Shock Pass-Through to Core Inflation
By Jason P. Brown and Colton Tousey
RWP 19-02, June 2019

Core inflation has become 75 percent less responsive to food price shocks since the 1970s, largely due to rising market concentration in food supply chains.

Speaking for Herself: Changing Gender Roles in Survey Response
By Sabrina Minhas and Amy Oksol
RWP 19-01, February 2019

Female respondents to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics have increased over time, revealing potential issues with historic data quality.