Economic Review

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Forthcoming

Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time

By Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae A new model for tracking GDP in real time allows policymakers to assess the current state of the economy.

Did Local Factors Contribute to the Decline in Bank Branches?

By Rajdeep Sengupta and Jacob Dice The number of bank branches has declined since the financial crisis, driven partly by changes in local market and competitive factors.

Second Quarter 2019

Volume 104, Number 2 | Front Matter

The Phillips Curve and the Missing Disinflation from the Great Recession

By Willem Van Zandweghe Expectations shaped by monetary policy kept inflation stable during the Great Recession despite disinflationary pressure from high unemployment.

Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment

By David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly Rising merger and acquisition activity complements investment growth by allowing firms to build their productive capacity.

Implementation Delays in Pension Retrenchment Reforms

By Huixin Bi, Kevin Hunt and Sarah Zubairy On average, pension retrenchment reforms are phased in over a decade, but age-related forms can take much longer to implement.

Economic Review Archive

First Quarter 2019

Volume 104, Number 1 | Front Matter

Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?

By A. Lee Smith Declining reserves have placed upward pressure on the federal funds rate in recent years despite the payment of interest on reserve balances.

What Explains Lifetime Earnings Differences across Individuals?

By José Mustre-del-Río and Emily Pollard Cumulative labor market experience explains a substantial portion of differences in lifetime earnings across individuals.

The Rise and Fall of College Tuition Inflation

By Brent Bundick and Emily Pollard Wages in the education sector and state appropriations to higher ed help explain changes in college tuition over time.

Volume 103, Number 4 | Front Matter

The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations

By Jordan Rappaport Jobs and residents have increasingly migrated to larger, less crowded metros, where business productivity and urban amenities have increased.

Additional files: Data and Code Files

The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?

By Nida Cakir Melek The shale boom led to greater spillovers from oil investment to aggregate investment.

Machine Learning Approaches to Macroeconomic Forecasting

By Aaron Smalter Hall A machine learning model can incorporate large amounts of data to forecast the unemployment rate.

Special Issue | Front Matter

Foreword

In July 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted a symposium titled “Agriculture in a Global Economy.” Esther L. George, the Bank’s President and Chief Executive Officer, highlights the expanding scope of agricultural trade and the agriculture sector’s position in the global economy.