Center for Agriculture and the Economy
Leveraging expertise from the Kansas City Fed, the Center provides timely analysis of industry developments and conducts ongoing research on the agricultural economy.
Corn and Soybean Price Patterns Reflect Different Stages of Their Respective Biofuel Markets
June 25, 2026
Differences in the path of prices for corn and soybeans in the first half of 2026 have been, in part, due to different stages of development in their respective biofuel markets. Following a rally with the onset of conflict in the Middle East, the price of corn has fallen to a level slightly below the start of the year. The well-established role that corn plays in ethanol production creates significant co-movement with ethanol prices and, by extension, oil prices. In contrast, the price of soybeans has increased at a relatively modest and stable pace since January. With large increases in mandated biofuel production for 2026 and 2027, biomass-based diesel production capacity is expanding. Domestic soybean processing has been further bolstered by higher energy prices supporting soybean oil coupled with strong demand for its byproduct soybean meal as animal feed. While favorable planting conditions and substantial carryover from previous large harvests put downward pressure on both crop prices in late spring, expanding biomass-based diesel production likely prevented a steeper decline in the price of soybeans.
Crop Prices and Biofuel Markets
Note: Panel A depicts the percent change in the daily price from January 2, 2026 for December corn and ethanol futures. Panel B depicts the percent change in the daily price from January 2, 2026 for November soybean and December soybean oil futures.
Source: Chicago Board of Trade via Barchart.com
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The Kansas City Fed's Continuing Commitment to Agriculture
Through regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on U.S. and global agriculture. Leveraging this expertise, the Center for Agriculture and the Economy serves as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments and conducting ongoing research on the agricultural economy. The Kansas City Fed is committed to understanding developments in the agricultural economy and gathering perspectives from rural America in order to include them in discussions on the national economy.
The Kansas City Fed's Ag Connection
Agriculture is central to the Kansas City Fed’s 10th District’s economy, from farm production and food manufacturing to agricultural banking and finance. Through its regular surveys, analysis and connections across the industry, the Kansas City Fed has had a longstanding focus on the U.S. and global agricultural economy. At the same time, connecting with stakeholders and ag industry professionals through events, round tables and conversations is critical to the Bank’s work.