Center for Agriculture and the Economy

Leveraging expertise from the Kansas City Fed, the Center provides timely analysis of industry developments and conducts ongoing research on the agricultural economy.

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Corn and Soybean Price Patterns Reflect Different Stages of Their Respective Biofuel Markets

June 25, 2026

By Ayesha Cooray

Differences in the path of prices for corn and soybeans in the first half of 2026 have been, in part, due to different stages of development in their respective biofuel markets. Following a rally with the onset of conflict in the Middle East, the price of corn has fallen to a level slightly below the start of the year. The well-established role that corn plays in ethanol production creates significant co-movement with ethanol prices and, by extension, oil prices. In contrast, the price of soybeans has increased at a relatively modest and stable pace since January. With large increases in mandated biofuel production for 2026 and 2027, biomass-based diesel production capacity is expanding. Domestic soybean processing has been further bolstered by higher energy prices supporting soybean oil coupled with strong demand for its byproduct soybean meal as animal feed. While favorable planting conditions and substantial carryover from previous large harvests put downward pressure on both crop prices in late spring, expanding biomass-based diesel production likely prevented a steeper decline in the price of soybeans.

The left chart depicts the percent change in daily prices for corn (blue) and ethanol (purple) since January 2, 2026 using December futures contracts. Both prices rise concurrently to about 8% in April, then diverge with the price of ethanol rising to nearly 15% in May while the price of corn more modestly increased to 10%. Both prices fall in June- the price of ethanol falls to about 3% above its start-of-the-year price and the price of corn falling to below 3% of its start-of-the-year price. The right chart depicts the percent change in daily prices for soybeans (blue) and soybean oil (purple) since January 2, 2026 using November and December futures contracts, respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the price of soybeans (blue) has increased at a modest and stable pace from 0% to 7-12%, while the price of soybean oil (purple) demonstrates dramatic divergence, climbing to nearly 50% by late May before declining to 35% in June.

Crop Prices and Biofuel Markets

Note: Panel A depicts the percent change in the daily price from January 2, 2026 for December corn and ethanol futures. Panel B depicts the percent change in the daily price from January 2, 2026 for November soybean and December soybean oil futures.
Source: Chicago Board of Trade via Barchart.com

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