Research Working Papers
Working papers cover a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, payment methods, banking and more.
Recent Papers
We examine how federal debt management decisions transmit to financial markets and the broader economy.
A new method assesses how the costs firms incur to adjust their prices determine inflation and affect monetary policy.
Estimates with new time series methods suggest households act as if they will bear only a fraction of outstanding government debt.
Past experiences with fraud affect whether individuals take precautionary measures under a new fraud threat.
A supply disruption’s effect on retail prices depends on the magnitude of the shock and the perceived reliability of the seller.
Large language models (LLMs) seem more impatient and altruistic than humans in economic experiments.
Text-based analysis of FOMC meeting transcripts can help identify the evolution of members’ perceptions of economic conditions.
Cross-validation biases time series model selection even when used with VARs or with models that have martingale-like errors.
Financial constraints can weigh on credit access and employment after a natural disaster—even outside the affected area.