New Trimmed Import and Export Growth Rates Offer a Better Perspective on Underlying Trends
Forecasts of imports and exports are important tools for understanding U.S. economic growth. However, imports and exports can be highly volatile, making import and export growth difficult to forecast. We introduce a new data product from the Kansas City Fed: trimmed import and export growth rates. These trimmed growth rates remove less informative subcomponents of the aggregate growth rates, helping to reveal underlying trends and improve forecast accuracy.
International
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Thomas R. Cook
Johannes Matschke
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November 10, 2026
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Downstream Bottlenecks in the Oil Supply Chain Are Contributing to Historically High Refinery Margins and Fuel Prices
Ongoing global energy supply shocks are causing disruptions throughout the oil supply chain. These shocks, combined with depleted petroleum inventories, are creating tight market conditions and bottlenecks for the downstream refining sector. Consequently, capacity constraints are emerging for refineries, leading to historically high refinery margins and adding upward pressure to already elevated fuel prices.
Natural Resources and Environment
Energy
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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David Rodziewicz
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November 5, 2026
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New Rural Labor Indicators from the Kansas City Fed Highlight Key Differences in Farming-Concentrated Counties
The Kansas City Fed’s Center for Agriculture and the Economy has released new Rural Labor Indicators (RLI) that compare labor market outcomes in farming-concentrated counties—located mainly in the Great Plains and western Corn Belt—with those in other nonmetro and metro counties. These indicators show that while employment growth fluctuates less over the business cycle in farming-concentrated counties, unemployment and wages in these counties are more sensitive to swings in farm product prices.
Labor and Demographics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Jason P. Brown
Nate Kauffman
Shu-Kuei X. Yang
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November 4, 2026
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Financially Distressed Consumers May Have Turned to High-Cost Credit to Cope with Inflation
Many U.S. consumers, especially those who are financially distressed, have used various strategies to cope with rising prices last year. Notably, financially distressed consumers were substantially more likely to have taken on additional debt to manage the financial strain of inflation; furthermore, they often borrowed at higher costs. Higher inflation rates and cuts in federal financial aid this year may compel even more financially distressed consumers to rely on high-cost credit.
Payments
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Ying Lei Toh
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October 15, 2026
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Has the Investment Boom Expanded U.S. Productive Capacity?
U.S. productive capacity has expanded, but so far almost entirely in one narrow segment: the industries that make computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors, which account for about 3 percent of U.S. manufacturing output. Capacity in the rest of manufacturing remains below its pre-pandemic level. Where the AI build-out presses hardest on domestic suppliers, adjustment is occurring through higher prices and imports rather than broad new U.S. capacity.
AI
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Nida Çakır Melek
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October 13, 2026
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Beyond Valuations: Long-Term Financial Risks from the AI Build-Out
Large-scale investments associated with the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out have encompassed a broad range of industries, financial institutions, and markets, generating investor exuberance but also concerns about the disorderly repricing of assets. The financial risks associated with AI investment extend beyond short-term valuation distortions and may entail significant long-term structural shifts.
AI
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Padma Sharma
Pierce George
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October 5, 2026
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The Low-Hire, Low-Fire Labor Market Is Calm but Fragile
The unemployment rate has held steady at just above 4 percent in 2026. However, this low unemployment rate does not mean workers are finding jobs easily. Instead, unemployment is low because job loss is near historical lows. This low-hire, low-fire labor market may be a source of vulnerability. Although the current unemployment rate is identical to the unemployment rate in 1999, the labor market is less resilient. We show that a mild downturn akin to the 2001 recession would drive unemployment to 8 percent today compared with only 6 percent in 1999.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Molly E. Hirner
Yusuf Mercan
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September 30, 2026
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Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Explored Innovation in Financial Markets
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium brought together academics and policymakers from around the world to discuss how stablecoins, tokenization, and artificial intelligence could transform financial markets and reflect on what those changes may require of central banks and regulators.
AI
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Macroeconomics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Andrew Glover
Stefan A. Jacewitz
W. Blake Marsh
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September 28, 2026
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Private Nonprofit Colleges’ Growing Reliance on Graduate Students May Prove Unsustainable
As private nonprofit colleges face lagging undergraduate enrollments and growing financial difficulties, they have turned to graduate programs to increase their revenue. With undergraduate enrollments expected to decline, these colleges are likely to place an even greater emphasis on graduate programs going forward. However, recent government policy changes may also suppress graduate enrollment growth, testing colleges’ business models and the private nonprofit college sector in general.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Economic Bulletin
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Emily Pollard
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September 23, 2026
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A Historical Analysis of the Federal Income Tax
Although income taxes have been the main source of U.S. government revenue for more than 100 years, tariffs once played a greater role in financing government activity. An analysis of U.S. fiscal receipts since 1789 suggests that the shift from tariff-based to income-based tax revenue was driven by three factors: a pressing need for more revenue during the first and second World Wars, a long-run shift in the composition of the U.S. labor force, and a widely held belief that reform was necessary.
Law and Economics
Macroeconomics
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Stephen D. Vasiljevic
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September 4, 2026
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