Data file for "Forecasting with Feelings: The Modest Link Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending"
Data file for the paper, "Forecasting with Feelings: The Modest Link Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending" by José Mustre-del-Río and Jalen Nichols, Economic Bulletin, May 16, 2025.
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
Macroeconomics
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José Mustre-del-Río
Jalen Nichols
Jose Mustre-del-Rio
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May 22, 2025
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Forecasting with Feelings: The Modest Link Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending
Recent declines in consumer sentiment have prompted concerns about an impending slowdown in spending growth. However, the link between consumer sentiment and growth in real household spending has been modest historically, suggesting changes in consumer sentiment are unlikely to significantly alter forecasts of household spending. Consistent with this interpretation, despite the downbeat tone from consumers, sentiment does not meaningfully alter near-term predictions of 2025 spending growth.
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
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José Mustre-del-Río
Jalen Nichols
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May 16, 2025
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Canadian Oil Important for Midwest Gasoline Prices
U.S. imports of Canadian oil—a heavy sour crude—have doubled over the past two decades. Most of this oil is sent to Midwest refineries that specialize in processing heavy sour crude. These refineries have limited flexibility to substitute other types of crude without incurring the cost of switching equipment. As a result, higher prices for Canadian crude, including from tariffs, could lead Midwest consumers to pay higher prices on refined petroleum products such as gasoline, holding other factors constant.
Natural Resources and Environment
International
Economic Bulletin
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Jason P. Brown
Bobby Beckemeyer
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May 9, 2025
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Web Page
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Community Banks Have Maintained Profitability in a High-Interest Rate Environment
Two-thirds of community banks have maintained their profitability—measured by net interest margins—since interest rates began increasing in 2022. More profitable banks have distinguished themselves by generating both higher asset returns and lower funding costs. Community banks with higher asset returns have achieved them primarily by rebalancing their asset holdings, while community banks with lower funding costs have more stable, low-cost deposit bases on average.
Monetary Policy
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Mariia Dzholos
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April 16, 2025
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Web Page
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Data file for "Key Agricultural Trade Partners Are Important for U.S. Farm Sector Revenues and Food Prices" paper
Replication file for the paper, "Key Agricultural Trade Partners Are Important for U.S. Farm Sector Revenues and Food Prices", by Ty Kreitman, Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, April 04, 2025.
Agriculture
Economic Bulletin
International
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Ty Kreitman
Ty Kreitman
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April 7, 2025
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Key Agricultural Trade Partners Are Important for U.S. Farm Sector Revenues and Food Prices
The U.S. agricultural sector is especially vulnerable to fluctuations in trade with Mexico, Canada, and China. Several major commodities and staple consumer food products rely heavily on exports to and imports from these countries. Major changes to these key trade relationships could lead to reduced farm sector revenues and higher food prices for consumers.
International
Economic Bulletin
Agriculture
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Ty Kreitman
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April 4, 2025
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Web Page
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Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Have Fallen
Credit card delinquencies rose steadily for subprime borrowers from March 2022, when monetary policy tightening began, to November 2024. As of January 2025, however, the subprime delinquency rate has fallen for two consecutive months. This fall coincided with declines in both subprime credit card purchases as well as the annual percentage rate (APR) for subprime credit cards. Together, these declines suggest subprime borrowers had lower demand for credit card financing in recent months.
Monetary Policy
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Jordan Pandolfo
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April 2, 2025
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Web Page
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Data file for "Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Have Fallen"
Data file for the paper "Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Have Fallen" by Jordan Pandolfo, Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, April 2, 2025
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
Monetary Policy
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Jordan Pandolfo
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April 2, 2025
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Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries
The U.S. labor market has cooled over the last two years but remains healthy overall. However, an industry-specific version of the KC Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) suggests pockets of tightness and weakness have appeared in a few industries. Tightness appears to be limited to less labor-intensive industries, limiting upside risk to inflation. Weakness, on the other hand, has appeared in the interest-rate-sensitive information industry, which may be vulnerable to further labor market cooling.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Karlye Dilts Stedman
Emily Pollard
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January 31, 2025
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Web Page
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Data files for "Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries"
Data files for "Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries" by Karlye Dilts Stedman and Emily Pollard, Economic Bulletin, January 31, 2025.
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
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Emily Pollard
Karlye Dilts Stedman
Emily Pollard
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January 31, 2025
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