Research Working Papers
Working papers cover a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, payment methods, banking and more.
Recent Papers
Firm-Level Pass-Through of Supply Chain Disruptions: Insights from the U.S. Beef Market
A supply disruption’s effect on retail prices depends on the magnitude of the shock and the perceived reliability of the seller.
What Do LLMs Want?
Large language models (LLMs) seem more impatient and altruistic than humans in economic experiments.
Text Sentiment About Monetary Policy
Text-based analysis of FOMC meeting transcripts can help identify the evolution of members’ perceptions of economic conditions.
A Note on the Finite Sample Bias in Time Series Cross-Validation
Cross-validation biases time series model selection even when used with VARs or with models that have martingale-like errors.
Financial Constraints and Employment Dynamics following Natural Disasters
Financial constraints can weigh on credit access and employment after a natural disaster—even outside the affected area.
An Analytical Price of Stablecoin “Deposit” Insurance
This paper provides the first analytical estimates of the price of guaranteeing stablecoins against loss.
Complementary Effects of Financial Education and Payday Lending Regulations on Financial Inclusion
Financial education reduces adults’ likelihood of being unbanked, particularly in states where payday lending is also restricted.
Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Maximum Employment
This paper assesses policy strategies that pursue maximum employment by mitigating shortfalls rather than deviations.
Regression Model Selection Under General Conditions
This paper shows that various model selection criteria—an important but debated statistical tool—in fact make similar selections.