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Economic Bulletin Archive

The Economic Bulletin offers snapshots of the Kansas City Fed's latest economic findings and perspectives on national economic conditions and issues related to monetary policy, industries, and markets. The publication launched in 2013 as The Macro Bulletin and became the Economic Bulletin in 2019.

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228 result(s) found
Article Title Author(s) Date Type

Consumer Discretionary Sector Has Boosted Recent Regional Services Activity as Business and Professional Activity Slows

The Kansas City Fed’s monthly services survey tracks business activity for a wide variety of services firms in the Tenth District. We segment the results into consumer services (both discretionary and nondiscretionary) and business and professional services and find that the consumer sector has been stronger than the business and professional sector recently, driven by discretionary services. Accordingly, consumer services firms report greater pricing power, expected wage growth, and capital expenditures.

 Chad Wilkerson
Chase Farha Expandable Row
June 26, 2024
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Are Firms Hoarding Cash Post-Pandemic?

Cash holdings rose to record levels following the pandemic, raising concerns that firms are “hoarding” cash beyond what is needed for economic use. To investigate this claim, we examine the determinants of cash holdings at public firms pre- and post-pandemic. We find that despite significant structural changes in the economy, firms’ cash allocation incentives are mostly unchanged. Investment opportunities and profitability best explain the distribution of cash across firms today, followed by precautionary motives.

 Karlye Dilts Stedman
W. Blake Marsh
Phillip An Expandable Row
June 25, 2024
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Housing Services Inflation May Decline Only Gradually

The inflation rate for housing services remains about 2 percentage points above its 2019 level. Several factors are likely to slow its decline, including more than a decade of underbuilding prior to the pandemic, limited capacity to increase the nation’s housing stock, and the limited number of homes available for sale due to the steeper mortgage rates owners would face if they sold and purchased a different home.

 Jordan Rappaport Expandable Row
June 24, 2024
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Data file for "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" Updated through April 2024

Data file for the paper, "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" by Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang, updated through April 2024.

 Jun Nie
Shu-Kuei X. Yang Expandable Row
June 20, 2024
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Data file for "Young Workers Fuel Recovery in Jobs Requiring a High School Diploma or Less"

Data file for the paper, "Young Workers Fuel Recovery in Jobs Requiring a High School Diploma or Less" by Emily Pollard, Economic Bulletin, 14 June, 2024.

 Emily Pollard
Emily Pollard Expandable Row
June 18, 2024
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Young Workers Fuel Recovery in Jobs Requiring a High School Diploma or Less

The labor force of individuals with a high school diploma or less has surpassed pre-pandemic levels thanks to an increase in the number of young workers. However, this shift toward younger workers could affect both the current and future productive capacity of the economy. Young workers lack experience and work fewer hours, which could lead to productivity losses in the short term. More concerningly, some young people appear to be foregoing education to work, which may hurt their future labor market prospects.

 Emily Pollard Expandable Row
June 14, 2024
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Despite High Inflation, Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored

The Federal Reserve’s long-run 2 percent inflation target is intended to prevent periods of high inflation from becoming embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. However, inflation has remained above the Fed’s target for over three years, increasing the risk that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored. Building on our previous research, we study recent market reactions to inflation news and find that longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored.

 Brent Bundick
A. Lee Smith Expandable Row
May 31, 2024
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Rising Immigration Has Helped Cool an Overheated Labor Market

The United States has experienced a substantial influx of immigrants over the past two years. In 2023, net international migration surpassed its pre-pandemic peak. This flow of immigrant workers has acted as a powerful catalyst in cooling overheated labor markets and tempering wage growth across industries and states.

 Elior Cohen Expandable Row
May 22, 2024
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Consumer Debt Is High, but Consumers Seem to Have Room to Run

Real consumer debt is now higher than its prior peak during the global financial crisis, driven in part by increases in credit card debt. Although the share of credit card debt transitioning into delinquency has risen, it remains below levels seen during the global financial crisis. Moreover, debt-to-income measures remain historically low, suggesting that consumers in aggregate may have more room to run up debt before experiencing further financial stress.

 Jason P. Brown
Colton Tousey Expandable Row
May 17, 2024
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Data file for "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" Updated April 2024

Data file for the paper, "What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?" by Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang, updated through April 1, 2024.

 Jun Nie
Shu-Kuei X. Yang Expandable Row
May 15, 2024
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