Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries
The U.S. labor market has cooled over the last two years but remains healthy overall. However, an industry-specific version of the KC Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) suggests pockets of tightness and weakness have appeared in a few industries. Tightness appears to be limited to less labor-intensive industries, limiting upside risk to inflation. Weakness, on the other hand, has appeared in the interest-rate-sensitive information industry, which may be vulnerable to further labor market cooling.
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
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Karlye Dilts Stedman
Emily Pollard
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January 31, 2025
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Data files for "Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries"
Data files for "Labor Market Cooling Has Been Uneven Across Industries" by Karlye Dilts Stedman and Emily Pollard, Economic Bulletin, January 31, 2025.
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
Inflation
Labor and Demographics
Monetary Policy
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Emily Pollard
Karlye Dilts Stedman
Emily Pollard
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January 31, 2025
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Costs putting quality, affordable childcare out of reach for many
Problems attaining childcare have been weighing on workers' engagement in the labor force.
Ten
Economic Bulletin
Labor Force
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Andrea Gallagher
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January 24, 2025
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Web Page
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Ask an Economist: The surging demand for electricity
The increase that has taken place in recent years is expected to continue, signaling a shift toward a more electrified economy.
Ask an Economist
Energy
Economic Bulletin
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January 24, 2025
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Web Page
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Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
International
Economic Bulletin
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Thomas R. Cook
Mariia Dzholos
Johannes Matschke
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January 17, 2025
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Web Page
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First-Time Homeownership Became Less Affordable Across Most of the United States in Recent Years
New homeownership became less affordable across much of the United States over the last five years. Swiftly rising house prices and higher borrowing costs have not been fully offset by wage gains, making homeownership less affordable in both metropolitan and rural areas. Although new homeownership is less affordable than in years past, slower housing price gains and steadily rising wages may offer some reprieve for housing affordability in the coming year.
Housing
Economic Geography
Economic Bulletin
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Chase Farha
John McCoy
David Rodziewicz
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January 15, 2025
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KC Fed LMCI Can Help Sift Out Noise in Payroll Data
Data on monthly payroll growth are noisy and subject to revisions, making real-time assessment of the health of the labor market challenging. We use the information encoded in the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) to get a cleaner picture of payroll growth. According to the LMCI-implied estimates of payroll growth, the labor market may be stronger than official data suggest.
Labor and Demographics
Macroeconomics
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
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Amaze Lusompa
José Mustre-del-Río
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January 13, 2025
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How Do Financial Markets Perceive the Balance of Risks to the Policy Rate?
We introduce a new measure of policy rate skew that uses interest rate options prices to summarize market-perceived risks to future short-term interest rates. A positive value of policy rate skew indicates financial markets believe interest rates are more likely to end up higher than projected, whereas a negative value suggests rates could end up lower than projected. As of October 2024, our measure of policy rate skew is near zero, suggesting market-perceived risks to the interest rate outlook are roughly in balance.
Monetary Policy
Banking and Finance
Data and Trends
Economic Bulletin
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Brent Bundick
Taeyoung Doh
A. Lee Smith
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December 20, 2024
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Data file for "Hybrid Work May Pose Challenge to Bars and Restaurants in Parts of the Tenth Federal Reserve District"
Data file for "Hybrid Work May Pose Challenge to Bars and Restaurants in Parts of the Tenth Federal Reserve District" by John McCoy, Economic Bulletin, March 01, 2024.
Economic Bulletin
Economic Geography
Regional
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John McCoy
John McCoy
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December 19, 2024
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Consumer Credit Cards Show Few Signs of Financial Stress
Since monetary policy tightening began in March 2022, interest rates have risen across a range of consumer financial products, including credit cards. However, the consumer credit market shows little sign of financial stress as of September 2024. While credit card delinquency rates have increased among subprime borrowers, internal bank assessments suggest that subprime default risks remain historically low.
Monetary Policy
Banking and Finance
Economic Bulletin
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Jordan Pandolfo
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December 6, 2024
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Web Page
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