Recent Research

LMCI suggest the level of activity declined modestly and momentum remained high in January

February 13, 2019 | Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Activity declined modestly and momentum remained high in January.

LMCI suggest the level of activity increased and momentum remained high in December

January 09, 2019 | Labor Market Conditions Indicators
Activity increased and momentum remained high in December.

Do Changes in the Stock Market Affect Consumer and Business Confidence?

By Willem Van Zandweghe
January 09, 2019 | The Macro Bulletin
Stock market surprises influence consumer and business confidence, with potential effects on real spending.

Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data

By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
December 26, 2018 | Research Working Paper
Forecasting foreign GDP growth using cross-country monthly data provides a timely measure of foreign demand.

Small Business Lending Remains Stable in the Third Quarter

By Christi May-Oder, Assistant Vice President and Thomas Hobson, Senior Supervisory Analyst*
December 21, 2018 | Small Business Lending Survey
U. S. small business commercial and industrial (C&I) lending increased in the third quarter of 2018 with growth driven by large institutions. Most of the 122 respondents to the Federal Reserve’s Small Business Lending Survey (FR 2028D) indicated conditions for small business lending remained stable in the third quarter. Credit standards remained relatively unchanged with respondents indicating a tightening of lending terms. Interest rates on new small business C&I term loans and lines of credit continued to rise.

Economic Review

Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?

By A. Lee Smith
February 06, 2019 | Economic Review
Declining reserves have placed upward pressure on the federal funds rate in recent years despite the payment of interest on reserve balances.

The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations

By Jordan Rappaport
December 04, 2018 | Economic Review
Jobs and residents have increasingly migrated to larger, less crowded metros, where business productivity and urban amenities have increased.

The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?

By Nida Cakir Melek
November 20, 2018 | Economic Review
The shale boom led to greater spillovers from oil investment to aggregate investment.

Machine Learning Approaches to Macroeconomic Forecasting

By Aaron Smalter Hall
November 13, 2018 | Economic Review
A machine learning model can incorporate large amounts of data to forecast the unemployment rate.

Mapping Stress in Agricultural Lending

By Cortney Cowley
September 05, 2018 | Economic Review
Stress in agricultural lending, measured by repayment rates for farm loans, spiked across the Tenth District in 2016.
Read more Economic Review articles

Main Street Views

View all of our research on macroeconomics, monetary policy, payments, banking, regional and community issues in one location.

Agriculture & Rural Economies

Insights on agricultural and rural economies regionally and nationally.

Banking, Payments & Financial Markets

Issues affecting the banking and payments industries.

The Center for the Advancement of Data and Research in Economics

CADRE provides high performance computing capabilities and research data management and curation services to the research community.

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

Our annual symposium draws central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world. The proceedings include papers, commentaries and discussions.
About the Symposium | Archive

Monetary Policy & Macroeconomics

Issues of importance to the Federal Reserve, including financial markets, banking, monetary policy and more.

Community Research

Economic issues affecting low- and moderate- income communities, including fair and impartial access to credit.

Regional Research

Economic geography and developments for national monetary policy deliberations.