Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data
By Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie
RWP 18-14, December 2018

Forecasting foreign GDP growth using cross-country monthly data provides a timely measure of foreign demand.

A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models
By Taeyoung Doh and A. Lee Smith
RWP 18-13, December 2018; updated April 2020

A new and flexible approach to integrating measures of expectations into VAR models yields sharper identification of Federal Reserve forward guidance and enhances our understanding of the role that inflation expectations played in shaping the risk of deflation during and after the Great Recession.

Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration under Model Uncertainty
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric R. Young
RWP 18-12, December 2018

Financial integration may lead to larger growth and welfare benefits for developed countries than developing countries.

The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests
By A. Lee Smith and John W. Keating
RWP 18-11, December 2018

Granger Causality tests are unlikely to provide insight into the optimal monetary policy instrument.

The Initial Effects of EMV Migration on Chargebacks in the United States
By Fumiko Hayashi, Zach Markiewicz and Sabrina Minhas
RWP 18-10, December 2018

Since the EMV liability shift in October 2015, both chargebacks and fraud loss rates have increased for merchants, particularly from signature-based, card-present transactions.

The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market: Matching Data
By Gregory J. Cohen, Melanie Friedrichs, Kamran Gupta, William Hayes, Seung Jung Lee, Nathan Mislang, Maya Shaton, Martin Sicilian and W. Blake Marsh
RWP 18-09, December 2018

A simple, replicable methodology can help researchers link corporate loan datasets.

The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation
By Didem Tuzemen and Willem Van Zandweghe
RWP 18-08, August 2018

Understanding the cyclical behavior of labor force participation can provide insight into the nature of unemployment fluctuations.

Effects of State Taxation on Investment: Evidence from the Oil Industry
By Jason P. Brown, Peter Maniloff and Dale T. Manning
RWP 18-07, September 2018

The drilling response to a change in tax paid per barrel of oil is inelastic, implying that a decrease in the tax rate per barrel typically leads to decreases in state tax revenue.

Reaching the Hard to Reach with Intermediaries: The Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey
By Kelly D. Edmiston
RWP 18-06, July 2018

An analysis of the Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey suggests that using a nonrandom sample of intermediaries as proxies for hard-to-reach populations can yield empirically valid survey results.

Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Reply
By Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick
RWP 18-05, July 2018

When prices adjust slowly to changing economic conditions, higher uncertainty about the future can cause a recession.

The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding
By Jason P. Brown, Dayton M. Lambert and Timothy R. Wojan
RWP 18-04, May 2018

New technique allows researchers to determine when “statistically insignificant” means “no substantive effect.”

Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States
By Didem Tuzemen
RWP 18-03, April 2018

The natural rate of unemployment has declined in the past two decades due to demographic and technological changes.

Sovereign Default and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs
By Huixin Bi, Eric M. Leeper and Campbell Leith
RWP 18-02, March 2018

As the probability of sovereign default surges, the spread between the risky and risk-free interest rates can force policymakers to choose between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing output.

Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications
By Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith
RWP 18-01, January 2018

Communicating a longer-run inflation objective helped anchor inflation expectations in the United States but not in Japan.