PDFDownload paper RWP 18-03, April 2018

I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Using micro-level data from the Current Population Survey for the period 1994–2017, I find that the natural rate of unemployment declined by 0.5 percentage point since 1994 and currently stands at 4.5 percent. My projections show that ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.

JEL Classification: E24, J21, J23, J24

Article Citation

  • Tüzemen, Didem. 2018. “Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper No. 18-03, April. Available at External Linkhttps://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2018-03


Didem Tuzemen

Senior Economist

Didem Tüzemen is a Senior Economist in the Economic Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Ms. Tüzemen joined the department in July 2011 after earning h…