Growth in Business Activity Cooled in December
Growth in Tenth District services activity cooled in December (Charts 1 & 2). However, expectations for future activity increased (Table 1). Input price growth stayed steady this month while selling price growth accelerated, but is still below input price growth.
The month-over-month services composite index was 2 in December, down from 9 in November and 5 in October (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is a weighted average of the revenue/sales, employment, and inventory indexes. The retail and wholesale industries saw declines this month while autos, education, and tourism grew. Most month-over-month indexes were positive, but lower than last month’s readings. General revenue/sales eased from 14 to 2, while employment also cooled from 6 to 3. All year-over-year indexes were positive, except access to credit. The year-over-year composite index increased further from 15 to 24. This growth was driven more by consumer-oriented firms, as the consumer index increased from 18 to 31 while the business services index ticked up from 7 to 11. Both revenues and employment grew at a robust pace, while capital expenditures cooled somewhat. Expectations for future services activity increased further, as expectations for future revenues accelerated while employment expectations stayed flat.
Services Composite Indexes
Skip to data visualization table| Date | Vs. a Month Ago | Vs. a Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| Dec-23 | -7 | 8 |
| Jan-24 | -2 | -7 |
| Feb-24 | 12 | -11 |
| Mar-24 | 7 | -2 |
| Apr-24 | 9 | 7 |
| May-24 | 11 | 4 |
| Jun-24 | 2 | 8 |
| Jul-24 | -4 | 3 |
| Aug-24 | 5 | 10 |
| Sep-24 | -2 | 4 |
| Oct-24 | 5 | 9 |
| Nov-24 | 9 | 15 |
| Dec-24 | 2 | 24 |
Composite Indexes vs. a Year Ago by Sector
Skip to data visualization table| Date | Consumer Services | Business Services |
|---|---|---|
| Dec-23 | 18 | -8 |
| Jan-24 | -1 | -19 |
| Feb-24 | -7 | -20 |
| Mar-24 | 0 | -5 |
| Apr-24 | 13 | -7 |
| May-24 | 7 | -2 |
| Jun-24 | 15 | -7 |
| Jul-24 | 20 | -30 |
| Aug-24 | 10 | 8 |
| Sep-24 | 8 | -5 |
| Oct-24 | 9 | 11 |
| Nov-24 | 18 | 7 |
| Dec-24 | 31 | 11 |
Special Questions
This month contacts were asked about worker productivity. 60% of firms reported the productivity of their average workers has not changed in the past year, while 14% reported less productive workers and 26% reported more productive workers (Chart 2). Contacts were also asked how reliant their firms are on immigrant workers. 72% of firms said they are not reliant on immigrant workers, while 13% reported they are slightly reliant, 7% reported they are somewhat reliant, and 8% reported they are very reliant (Chart 3).
Selected Services Comments
“Consumer confidence seems to be increasing while inflation seems to be on a downward trend. I am hopeful that we can experience continue this trend going into 2025.”
“We are continuing to struggle to acquire new business. We are finding creative ways to give more cost saving options (payment terms, discounts, etc.) to businesses that utilize our staffing augmentation services and how we approach and present those options.”
“We are increasing wages 4.25% in an effort to offset employee expense increases.”
“We're seeing the general restaurant slow down.”
“Our restaurant business is up 17% with per plate price at about $58 per person. Seems restaurants are fighting each other to get kitchen employees, forcing labor cost up.”