A. Lee Smith
Research and Policy Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
1 Memorial Drive
Kansas City , Missouri
Biography
Andrew Lee Smith is a Research and Policy Advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Prior to joining the department in 2014, Mr. Smith received a Ph.D. and M.A. in economics from the University of Kansas. He also holds a B.A. in economics and mathematics from Drury University. His primary research interests are in time-series modeling, macroeconomics, and monetary policy.
Professional Journals and Books
- "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks"
with Brent Bundick, The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming. - "The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests"
with John W. Keating, Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 42, June 2019, pp. 90-99. - "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions"
with John W. Keating, Logan J. Kelly, and Victor J. Valcarcel, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 51, February 2019, pp. 227-259. - "When Does the Cost Channel Pose a Challenge to Inflation Targeting Central Banks?"
European Economic Review, Volume 89, October 2016, pp. 471-494.
Economic Review Articles
- "Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?"
First Quarter 2019 - "Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest"
with Craig S. Hakkio, First Quarter 2017 - "Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility"
with Troy Davig, Nida Çakir Melek, Jun Nie, and Didem Tüzemen, Third Quarter 2015 - "Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?"
with Thealexa Becker, Third Quarter 2015
Research Working Papers
- "The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet"
with Victor J. Valcarcel, RWP 20-23 - "Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations"
with Brent Bundick, RWP 20-11 - "Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?"
with Brent Bundick, RWP 20-01 - "A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models"
with Taeyoung Doh, RWP 18-13 - "The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests"
with John W. Keating, RWP 18-11 - "Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications"
with Brent Bundick, RWP 18-01 - "Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium"
with Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford, RWP 17-07 - "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks"
with Brent Bundick, RWP 16-02 - "When Does the Cost Channel Pose a Challenge to Inflation Targeting Central Banks?"
RWP 15-06 - "House Prices, Heterogeneous Banks and Unconventional Monetary Policy Options"
RWP 14-12 - "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions"
with John W. Keating, Logan J. Kelly, and Victor J. Valcarcel, RWP 14-11 | Code Files
Economic Bulletin (formerly "The Macro Bulletin")
- "Why Are Americans Saving So Much of Their Income?"
December 2020 - Code and Data Files - "Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control"
with Brent Bundick, July 2020 - "How Many Reserves Does the Federal Reserve Need to Supply?"
March 2019 - "Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?"
with Brent Bundick, January 2018 - "Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?"
with Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Emily Pollard, June 2017 - "Forecasting the Stance of Monetary Policy under Balance Sheet Adjustments"
with Troy Davig, May 2017 - "How Does a Rise in International Shipping Costs Affect U.S. Inflation?"
with Trenton Herriford, Elizabeth M. Johnson and Nicholas Sly, December 2016 - "How Much of the Fall in Inflation Can be Explained by Energy and Import Prices?"
January 2016 -- Data and Code Files - "Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility"
with Troy Davig, Nida Çakir Melek, Jun Nie, and Didem Tüzemen, March 2016 - "Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?"
with Thealexa Becker, September 2015
