Andrew Lee Smith is a Senior Vice President and Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In this role, Lee has oversight of macroeconomic research and serves as an advisor on monetary policy matters.
Lee’s research has focused on the effects of expanding and unwinding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the impact of forward guidance on financial markets and the economy, and, more generally, how central bank communication can influence expectations and economic conditions.
Prior to joining the Bank in 2014, Lee received a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Kansas. He also holds a B.A. in economics and mathematics from Drury University in Springfield, Missouri.
Professional Journals and Books
- "How Optimal was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound,” with Logan Hotz and Brent Bundick. The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Forthcoming.
- "Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations,” with Brent Bundick. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming.
- “The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty” with Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 160, March 2024, 104803.
- “The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet” with Victor J. Valcarcel, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 146, January 2023, 104582.
- “A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models” with Taeyoung Doh, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 132, November 2022, pp. 24-43.
- "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks" with Brent Bundick, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 102, December 2020, pp. 946-965.
- "The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests" with John W. Keating, Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 42, June 2019, pp. 90-99.
- "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions" with John W. Keating, Logan J. Kelly, and Victor J. Valcarcel, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 51, February 2019, pp. 227-259.
- "When Does the Cost Channel Pose a Challenge to Inflation Targeting Central Banks?" European Economic Review, Volume 89, October 2016, pp. 471-494.
Economic Review Articles
- Introducing the Kansas City Fed’s Measure of Policy Rate Uncertainty (KC PRU)
with Brent Bundick and Luca Van der Meer, Vol. 109, no. 7 - The Evolving Role of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Effects and Challenges
with Chaitri Gulati, Vol. 107, no. 4 - Can Higher Gasoline Prices Set Off an Inflationary Spiral?
with Nida Çakır Melek and Francis M. Dillon, Vol. 107, no. 4 - Evaluating Quantitative Easing: The Importance of Accounting for Forward Guidance
with Brent Bundick, Vol. 107, no. 3 - Did the Federal Reserve Anchor Inflation Expectations Too Low?
with Brent Bundick, Vol. 106, no. 1 - Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?
First Quarter 2019 - Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest
with Craig S. Hakkio, First Quarter 2017 - Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
with Troy Davig, Nida Çakir Melek, Jun Nie, and Didem Tüzemen, Third Quarter 2015 - Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?
with Thealexa Becker, Third Quarter 2015
Research Working Papers
- Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19
with Brent Bundick and Luca Van der Meer, RWP 24-15 - How Optimal Was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound?
with Brent Bundick and Logan Hotz, RWP 23-14 - The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty
with Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford, RWP 22-02 - The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
with Victor J. Valcarcel, RWP 20-23; updated January 2022 - Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations
with Brent Bundick, RWP 20-11 - Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?
with Brent Bundick, RWP 20-01 - A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models
with Taeyoung Doh, RWP 18-13, Updated February 2022 - The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests
with John W. Keating, RWP 18-11 - Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications
with Brent Bundick, RWP 18-01 - Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium
with Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford, RWP 17-07, Updated February 2021 - The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks
with Brent Bundick, RWP 16-02 - When Does the Cost Channel Pose a Challenge to Inflation Targeting Central Banks?
RWP 15-06 - House Prices, Heterogeneous Banks and Unconventional Monetary Policy Options
RWP 14-12 - A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions
with John W. Keating, Logan J. Kelly, and Victor J. Valcarcel, RWP 14-11 -- Appendix, Code Files
Economic Bulletin
- How Do Financial Markets Perceive the Balance of Risks to the Policy Rate?
with Brent Bundick and Taeyoung Doh, December 2024 - Considerations for the Longer-Run Maturity Composition of the Federal Reserve’s Treasury Portfolio
with Rajdeep Sengupta, August 2024 - Despite High Inflation, Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored
with Brent Bundick, May 2024 - Financial Stress May Do Relatively Little to Reduce Inflation
with Brent Bundick and Johannes Matschke, May 2023 - A Tight Labor Market Could Keep Rent Inflation Elevated
with Brent Bundick and Luca Van der Meer, March 2023 - Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023
with Nida Çakır Melek and Francis M. Dillon, February 2023 - Assessing Market Conditions ahead of Quantitative Tightening
with Rajdeep Sengupta, July 2022 - Why Are Americans Saving So Much of Their Income?
December 2020 -- Code and Data Files - Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control
with Brent Bundick, July 2020 - How Many Reserves Does the Federal Reserve Need to Supply?
March 2019 - Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?
with Brent Bundick, January 2018 - Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?
with Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford and Emily Pollard, June 2017 - Forecasting the Stance of Monetary Policy under Balance Sheet Adjustments
with Troy Davig, May 2017 - How Does a Rise in International Shipping Costs Affect U.S. Inflation?
with Trenton Herriford, Elizabeth M. Johnson and Nicholas Sly, December 2016 - How Much of the Fall in Inflation Can be Explained by Energy and Import Prices?
January 2016 -- Code and Data Files - Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
with Troy Davig, Nida Çakir Melek, Jun Nie, and Didem Tüzemen, March 2016 - Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?
with Thealexa Becker, September 2015