Brent Bundick is a Vice President and Economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In that role, he conducts research on the macroeconomy and serves as an advisor to the Bank’s leadership on monetary policy and macroeconomic issues. He rejoined the Bank in 2014 after completing his Ph.D. in Economics from Boston College. Prior to graduate school, Brent worked in the Department as a Research Associate and Assistant Economist. He also holds a M.S. in Mathematics and Statistics from the University of Missouri – Kansas City and a B.A. in Economics and Mathematics from the College of William and Mary. Brent's research has examined the effects of uncertainty on the macroeconomy and how changes in central bank communication affect inflation, labor markets, and the broader economy.
Professional Journals and Books
- "How Optimal was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound,” with Logan Hotz and A. Lee Smith. The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Forthcoming.
- "Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations,” with A. Lee Smith. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming.
- “The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty” with Trenton Herriford and A. Lee Smith, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 160, March 2024, 104803.
- "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks" with A. Lee Smith, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 102(5): 946-965.
- Book Review of "Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy" edited by Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and Amit Seru, Journal of Economic Literature, 2019, 57(1): 182-183.
- "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Reply" with Susanto Basu, Econometrica, Volume 86, Number 4, May 2018, Pages 1527-1531.
- "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand" with Susanto Basu, Econometrica, Volume 85, Number 3, May 2017, Pages 937-958.
Economic Review Articles
- Introducing the Kansas City Fed’s Measure of Policy Rate Uncertainty (KC PRU)
with A. Lee Smith and Luca Van der Meer, Vol. 109, no. 7 - Evaluating Quantitative Easing: The Importance of Accounting for Forward Guidance
with A. Lee Smith, Vol. 107, no. 3 - Did the Federal Reserve Anchor Inflation Expectations Too Low?
with A. Lee Smith, Vol. 106, no. 1 - The Rise and Fall of College Tuition Inflation
with Emily Pollard, First Quarter 2019 - How Do FOMC Projections Affect Policy Uncertainty?
with Trenton Herriford, Second Quarter 2017 - Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters
Fourth Quarter 2015
Research Working Papers
- Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19
with A. Lee Smith and Luca Van der Meer, RWP 24-15 - How Optimal Was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound?
with Logan Hotz and A. Lee Smith, RWP 23-14 - The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty
with Trenton Herriford and A. Lee Smith, RWP 22-02 - From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC’s New Employment Objective
with Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, RWP 21-04 - Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations
with A. Lee Smith, RWP 20-11 - Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?
with A. Lee Smith, RWP 20-01 - Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Reply
with Susanto Basu, RWP 18-05 | Original Data and Code Files | Updated Data and Code Files - Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications
with A. Lee Smith, RWP 18-01 - Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium
with Trenton Herriford and A. Lee Smith, RWP 17-07 - The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks
with A. Lee Smith, RWP 16-02 - Endogenous Volatility at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Stabilization Policy
with Susanto Basu, RWP 15-01 - Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand
with Susanto Basu, RWP 14-15 | Original Data and Code Files | Updated Data and Code Files
Economic Bulletin
- How Do Financial Markets Perceive the Balance of Risks to the Policy Rate?
with Taeyoung Doh and A. Lee Smith, December 2024 - Despite High Inflation, Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored
with A. Lee Smith, May 2024 - Financial Stress May Do Relatively Little to Reduce Inflation
with Johannes Matschke and A. Lee Smith, May 2023 - A Tight Labor Market Could Keep Rent Inflation Elevated
with A. Lee Smith and Luca Van der Meer, March 2023 - Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control
with A. Lee Smith, July 2020 - The Persistent Effects of the Temporary Tightening in Financial Conditions
April 2019 - Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?
with A. Lee Smith, January 2018 - Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?
with A. Lee Smith, Trenton Herriford and Emily Pollard, June 2017 - Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters
December 2015 - Are Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Stable?
with Craig S. Hakkio, March 2015
Recent Speeches
- National Economic Outlook (10/10/2024)