Taeyoung Doh is a Senior Economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. He joined the department in July 2007. He received a bachelor's degree in economics from Seoul National University in 1996, an M.A. degree from Seoul National University in 1998 and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 2007. His current research interest include monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, and asset pricing based on long run macroeconomic risks.
Professional Journals and Books
- “Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy”, with JiHyung Lee and Woong Yong Park, Journal of Financial Econometric, 23(1) January, 2025.
- “A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models” with Andrew Lee Smith, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 132(C), pages 24-43.
- "A Bayesian Evaluation of Alternative Models of Trend Inflation" with Todd Clark, International Journal of Forecasting, pp. 426-448, Vol 30(3), July-September 2014
- "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence" with Troy Davig, Review of Economics and Statistics, pp. 862-75, Vol 96(5), December 2014
- Book Chapter Contribution: "The State Space Representation and Estimation of a Time-Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility" with Michael Connolly, in State-Space Models, edited by Zeng, Yong and Shu Wu, Springer: 2013
- "Long-Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Estimation" Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2013, 28(3), 478-497
- "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About the Federal Reserve's Implicit Inflation Target?" Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2012, 44 (2-3), 469-486
- "Yield Curve in an Estimated Nonlinear Macro Model" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35 (8), 1229-1244
- "Non-stationary Hours in a DSGE Model" with Yongsung Chang and Frank Schorfheide, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2007, 39 (6), 1357-1373
- "Analysis of Loan Guarantees among the Korean Chaebol Affiliates" with Keunkwan Ryu, International Economic Journal, 2004, 18 (2), 161-178
Economic Review Articles
- The Employment Effect of an Increase in the National Minimum Wage: Review of International Evidence
with Luca Van der Meer, Vol. 108, no. 2 - How You Say it Matters: Text Analysis of FOMC Statements Using Natural Language Processing
with Sungil Kim and Shu-Kuei Yang, Volume 106, Number 1 - Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time
with Jaeheung Bae, Third Quarter 2019 - Has the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations Changed in the United States during the Past Decade?
with Amy Oksol, First Quarter 2018 - Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy on and off the Zero Lower Bound
with Jason Choi, Third Quarter 2016 -- Additional files: Data and Code Files - Should Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?
with Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling, First Quarter 2015 - Has The Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements On Asset Prices Changed?
with Michael Connolly, Third Quarter 2013 - Is Unemployment Helpful in Understanding Inflation?
Fourth Quarter 2011 - The Efficacy of Large-Scale Asset Purchases at the Zero Lower Bound
Second Quarter 2010
Research Working Papers
- Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
with JiHyung Lee and Woong Yong Park, RWP 24-06 - Shocks, Frictions, and Policy Regimes: Understanding Inflation after the COVID-19 Pandemic
with Choongryul Yang, RWP 23-16 - The Economic Effects of a Rapid Increase in the Minimum Wage: Evidence from South Korea Experiments
with Kyoo il Kim, Sungil Kim, Hwanoong Lee, and Kyungho Song, RWP 22-13 - Leaning Against the Data: Policymaker Communications under State-Based Forward Guidance
with Joseph Gruber and Dongho Song, RWP 22-11 - Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements
with Dongho Song and Shu-Kuei Yang, RWP 20-14 - Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risks in a Data-Rich Environment
with Thomas R. Cook, RWP 19-12 - A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models
with A. Lee Smith, RWP 18-13; updated February 2022 - The Trend Real Interest Rate and Stagnation Risk: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data
RWP 17-08 - The Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity and Interest Rates
with Shu Wu, RWP 16-11 - Cash Flow and Risk Premium Dynamics in an Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Model with Recursive Preferences
with Shu Wu, RWP 15-12 - Yield Curve and Monetary Policy Expectations in Small Open Economies
with Kwan Soo Bong and Woong Yong Park, RWP 14-13 - The State Space Representation and Estimation of a Time-Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility
with Michael Connolly, RWP 12-04 - A Bayesian Evaluation of Alternative Models of Trend Inflation
with Todd E. Clark, RWP 11-16 - Yield Curve in an Estimated Nonlinear Macro Model
RWP 09-04 - Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence
with Troy Davig, RWP 08-16 - Long-Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Estimation
RWP 08-11 - What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About the Federal Reserve's Implicit Inflation Target?
RWP 07-10
Economic Bulletin
- How Do Financial Markets Perceive the Balance of Risks to the Policy Rate?
with Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith, December 2024 - Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Reduced Local Consumer Spending but Had Limited Effect on Aggregate Spending
with Edmund S. Crawley and Minchul Shin, September 6, 2023 - Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?
with Andrew T. Foerster, December 21, 2022 - To Improve the Accuracy of GDP Growth Forecasts, Add Financial Market Conditions
with Thomas R. Cook, June 4, 2021 - Assessing the Risk of Extreme Unemployment Outcomes
with Thomas R. Cook, August 28, 2019 - Revamping the Kansas City Financial Stress Index Using the Treasury Repo Rate
with Thomas Cook, October 24, 2018 - Changing Credit Profile of Consumers: Aging Versus the Business Cycle
Data File - Should Monetary Policy Monitor Risk Premiums in Financial Markets?
with Guangye Cao and Daniel Molling - Has The Effect of Monetary Policy Announcements On Asset Prices Changed?
with Michael Connolly
Work in Progress
- “Evaluating Equilibrium Term Structure Models: Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach”
with Minchul Shin and Jhih ChianWu