Andrew Lee Smith is a Senior Vice President and Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In this role, Lee has oversight of macroeconomic research and serves as an advisor on monetary policy matters.

Lee’s research has focused on the effects of expanding and unwinding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the impact of forward guidance on financial markets and the economy, and, more generally, how central bank communication can influence expectations and economic conditions.

Prior to joining the Bank in 2014, Lee received a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Kansas. He also holds a B.A. in economics and mathematics from Drury University in Springfield, Missouri.

Professional Journals and Books

  • "Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations,” with Brent Bundick. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming.
  • “The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty” with Brent Bundick and Trenton Herriford, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 160, March 2024, 104803.
  • “The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet” with Victor J. Valcarcel, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 146, January 2023, 104582.
  • “A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models” with Taeyoung Doh, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 132, November 2022, pp. 24-43.
  • "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks" with Brent Bundick, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 102, December 2020, pp. 946-965.
  • "The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests" with John W. Keating, Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 42, June 2019, pp. 90-99.
  • "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions" with John W. Keating, Logan J. Kelly, and Victor J. Valcarcel, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 51, February 2019, pp. 227-259.
  • "When Does the Cost Channel Pose a Challenge to Inflation Targeting Central Banks?" European Economic Review, Volume 89, October 2016, pp. 471-494.

Economic Review Articles

Research Working Papers

Economic Bulletin