Jun Nie is a Senior Economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. He received his M.A. and Ph.D. from New York University, and earned both a Bachelor's Degree in Economics and one in Mathematics from Wuhan University. Mr. Nie taught Intermediate Macroeconomics and Statistics at New York University in 2007-08. His main responsibilities at the Fed are conducting various macro and policy relevant research, forecasting the U.S. and global GDP growth, and evaluating monetary policy.
Mr. Nie’s current research interests include three areas. The first one focuses on the impact of uncertainty, including both model uncertainty and state uncertainty, on the macroeconomy and individual optimal decisions. In the second area, heterogeneous-agent models are combined with micro data to quantitatively evaluate effects of labor-market policies. The third research area focuses on the Chinese economy and its implications for the global economy.
Professional Journals and Books
- Money, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model with the Spirit of Capitalism with Qichun He, Yulei Luo and Heng-fu Zou, Accepted by the Review of Economic Dynamics
- External LinkIgnorance, Pervasive Uncertainty, and Household Finance with Yulei Luo and Haijun Wang, forthcoming, Journal of Economic Theory
- External LinkForecasting US Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data with Yifei Lyu and Shu-Kuei X. Yang, forthcoming, Economics Letters
- Ambiguity, Low Risk-Free Rates, and Consumption Inequality with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, Economic Journal, 130 (632), 2649-2679, 2020 | External LinkData and Code Files
- "Rational Inattention and the Dynamics of Consumption and Wealth in General Equilibrium" with Yulei Luo, Gaowang Wang, Eric R. Young (2017). Journal of Economic Theory, 172, 55-87.
- "Elastic Attention, Risk Sharing, and International Comovements" with Wei Li and Yulei Luo (2017). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 79, 1-20 (Lead Article).
- "Slow Information Diffusion and the Inertial Behavior of Durable Consumption" with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, Journal of European Economic Association, 13(5), 805-840, 2015
- "Model Uncertainty and Intertemporal Tax Smoothing" with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 45, 289-314, 2014
- "Robust Control, Informational Frictions, and International Consumption Correlations" with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, European Economic Review, 67, 1-27 (Lead Article), 2014
- "Model Uncertainty, State Uncertainty, and State-space Models" with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, State-Space Models: Applications in Finance and Economics, Wu, Shu and Yong Zeng (eds.), 2013, Springer Press
- "Robustness, Information-Processing Constraints, and the Current Account in Small Open Economies" with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, Journal of International Economics, 2012, 88(1), pp.104-120
Economic Review Articles
- How Did the 2018–19 Tariff Hikes Influence Household Spending?
with Alice von Ende-Becker and Shu-Kuei X. Yang, Fourth Quarter 2021 - Spending Patterns and Cost of Living for Younger versus Older Households
with Akshat S. Gautam, Fourth Quarter 2019 - Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data
with Amy Oksol, Second Quarter 2018 - Consumer Spending in China: the Past and the Future
with Andrew Palmer, Third Quarter 2016 - Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
with Troy Davig, Nida Cakir Melek, A. Lee Smith and Didem Tuzemen, Third Quarter 2015 - Implications of Recent U.S. Energy Trends for Trade Forecasts
with Craig S. Hakkio, Fourth Quarter 2014 - Economic Growth in Foreign Regions and U.S. Export Growth
with Lisa Taylor, Second Quarter 2013 - Would Active Labor Market Policies Help Combat High U.S. Unemployment?
with Ethan Struby, Third Quarter 2011
Research Working Papers
- Downward Wage Rigidity and Recession Dynamics in Advanced and Emerging Economies
with Johannes Matschke, RWP 22-10 - Attention Allocation and Heterogenous Consumption Responses
with Yulei Luo and Penghui Yin, RWP 22-07 - Wealth in the Utility Function and Consumption Inequality
with Yulei Luo and Heng-fu Zou, RWP 21-17 - Production and Inventory Dynamics Under Ambiguity Aversion
with Yulei Luo, Xiaowen Wang, and Eric R. Young, RWP 21-05 - Money, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model with the Spirit of Capitalism
with Qichun He, Yulei Luo and Heng-fu Zou, RWP 20-16 - Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data
with Yifei Lyu and Shu-Kuei X. Yang, RWP 20-09 - A Quantitative Analysis of CARES Act Unemployment Insurance
with Lei Fang and Zoe Xie, RWP 20-07 - On the Perverse Effect of Capital Account Liberalization: the Role of Labor Market Rigidity
with Qingyuan Du and Shang-Jin Wei, RWP 19-11 - Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data
with Craig S. Hakkio, RWP 18-14 - Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial IntegrationUnder Model Uncertainty
with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, RWP 18-12 - Ignorance, Pervasive Uncertainty, and Household Finance
with Yulei Luo and Haijun Wang, RWP 17-13 - Elastic Attention, Risk Sharing, and International Comovements
with Wei Li and Yulei Luo, RWP 15-16 - Rational Inattention and Dynamics of Consumption and Wealth in General Equilibrium
with Yulei Luo, Gaowang Wang, and Eric R. Young, RWP 14-14 - Human Capital Dynamics and the U.S. Labor Market
with Lei Fang, RWP 13-10 - Wealth Distribution with State-dependent Risk Aversion
with Rong-Wei Chu and Bei Zhang, RWP 13-09 - Slow Information Diffusion and the Inertial Behavior of Durable Consumption
with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, RWP 12-11 - Model Uncertainty, State Uncertainty, and State-space Models
with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, RWP 12-02 - Model Uncertainty and Intertemporal Tax Smoothing
with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, RWP 12-01 - Robustness, Information-Processing Constraints, and the Current Account in Small Open Economies
with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, RWP 10-17 - Robust Control, Informational Frictions, and International Consumption Correlations
with Yulei Luo and Eric R. Young, RWP 10-16 - Training or Search? Evidence and an Equilibrium Model
RWP 10-03
Economic Bulletin
- Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output
with Thomas R. Cook and Amaze Lusompa, November 4, 2022 - How Has the Current Lockdown in China Affected the Global Supply Chain?
May 2022 - What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements? |
Data File (Updated August 2022)
with Shu-Kuei X. Yang, August 11, 2021 - Coronavirus Dampens China’s First-Quarter GDP
with Yifei Lyu, April 6, 2020 - Why is Wage Growth So Low?
December 21, 2018 - How Much Would China’s GDP Respond to a Slowdown in Housing Activity?
with Thomas R. Cook and Aaron Smalter Hall, September 12, 2018 - What Could Resurging U.S. Energy Production Mean for the U.S. Trade Deficit?
with Nida Cakir Melek, March 7, 2018 - Has China’s Growth Reached a Turning Point?
with Yandong Jia, August 2017 - Gauging the Strength of Chinese GDP Growth
February, 2016 - Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
September, 2015 - Global Capital Flows from China
with Nicholas Sly, September, 2015 - The Effect of the U.S. Energy Boom on the Trade Deficit
with Craig Hakkio, July 2015 - China's Slowing Housing Market and GDP Growth
with Guangye Cao, August 2014 - U.S. Exports and Foreign Economic Growth: Which Regions Matter Most?
with Lisa Taylor, October 2013